100 thoughts on “Are We Alone? Galactic Civilization Challenge | Space Time | PBS Digital Studios

  1. at present time is still very low probability. in the future it will be 99.9 % because we will found aliens.

  2. I would love to know estimation of how many variables you can realy find inside drake's equation? If the answer is… infinite… how does it impact equation itself? Ive seen many documentaries showing few examples of earth, with its life, is so unique, but I have a feeling that this list is much, much longer… best regards from Poland.

  3. We dont need drake equation and look in outer space …. just look at planet earth … Just ONE intelligent civilization out of over 100 million species in last 4.2Billion years …
    So in the most Habitable most earth like planet and the most PERFECT location known ( ie planet earth), there was only humans who can build radio telescope ..

  4. a strange thought !
    What if both god has existed and that he has not existed just like electron and photon has duality nature ??
    What if both are right and wrong at the same time ??
    Wat if the outcome changes only with the perspective of different observers ??
    Just like good exists alongside evil .
    And quantum mechanics predicts the two opposite states of matter existing simultaneously .
    We always think of determining which one is true .
    Ppl once once thought photon and electron were only particles and later argued it is a wave . then we clubbed them both and gave a new theory .
    Any thoughts ??
    It might seem absurd and I don't even know if it is true or not .
    pla reply to me

  5. Have any geniuses here deduced any answers from Frank and Sullivan's paper? As far as I can tell, it doesn't even contain the data on the number of stars within 100 light years.

  6. Based on an Atheist point of view, it should be clear to you that there is no life out there. If life on Earth was so random, and frankly, impossible, it should be obvious that we are alone. The chance that we arose from nothing is 1 in 10 to the 40,000th power. Now, what are the chances that that would have happened twice. So, from an Atheist point of view, we can conclude that we are alone easily.

  7. Habitable planets naming and the habitable zone are the factors that are very subjective from the Earth point of view… Who knows what conditions aliens can survive..

  8. maybe we are like just like bacterias trying to understand radio waves, we still dont have the physical and technological capabilities to communicate with other sentience entities

  9. Here's a thought… What if the odds are low, though not quite so astronomically low, that a planet could produce and support intelligent life, but the problem is that not all life seeks to expand like we do?

    For example; a civilization with a religious philosophy that prevents them from expanding their culture or exploring into outer space… Basically, the Naavi from Avatar.

  10. I'd say the answer to the question is relative. What's the definition of 'being alone'? We should have evidence on alien civilization by now, but on the other hand it's far more probable that we are focused in wrong or subjective aspects here.

    TL;DR = Virtual reality. (If you don't care to read the entire text, you shouldn't care answering).

    Alien or extraterrestrial life depends on the perspective. There's extraterrestrial life for sure (bacteria etc) but I believe there's more-advanced-than-human kind of alien civilizations as well.

    I'll have to make ground for my claim. Sophisticated intelligence require sophisticated biomes. Planet that has billions of different organisms. Such planet require wide spectrum of different resources. That means in terms of intergalactic travel, resources are very rare. We're very good example of sophisticated cognition. Our planet is great example of wide spectrum of things. Also it's quite impossible to build intergalactic vessels with our limited resources.

    PBS Space Time has mentioned VR as one of the option for alien civilization, but without further analysis of the matter. So I'm proposing a different view. We don't know what cognition is. We can't measure perception. So, because resources are very rare it would make far more sense to grow "inside". Just as we're building CPU's on smaller and smaller dyes. The best chances to evolve is augment the biology with technology. After that has come to the point of further evolution, said civilization could 'upload' their cognition to computer. At this point computers would be something else than what we understand about them, and next logical step would be to change the entire carbon based life-form to something far more reasonable. As I said, we just don't know if we're surrounded by aliens.

  11. With the current data available, the only answer that question is: 50%. There are other civs, or there aren't. The sad truth is we have no clue with regards to the likelyhood of life popping up.

  12. Drake' s equation could also use a variable for the probability that life bearing planets will have enough biomass over a long enough time to create fossil fuels to allow he civilization to make the leap to industrialization (that or probability of some other comparable energy source).

  13. I think we are in simulation if there are multiverse exist, bcoz chances are much higher to meet alien if multiverse exist

  14. So whats the answer to that last question "If humanity is the only technological civilization to have arisen on any habitable planet within 100 light years how low would that probability of technological emergence need to be?" Anybody?

  15. What if an alien civilization disassembles planets to build dysentery spheres, which help harness the energy of the stars which allows them to open wormholes to other galaxies at other times. So what if the civilazation building a Dyson sphere around tabbys star was actually from a galaxy Long long ago far far away

  16. Fuck I am 24/7 thinking abt how can humans contact a intelligent civilization or will humans ever be able to contact a intelligent life out there!!!! I cannot concentrate on my work because of it, before I die I want to know about it

  17. Isn't that possible that other civilizations just do not work like us. Maybe they don't need water to thrive . Maybe sun and it's brother are alien civilization who we just do not identify like ants do not identify us as one?

  18. I lean towards us not being alone. I also think that there is so much space between the stars, that we'll most likely never know. But one can wonder right

  19. If prob in our galaxy is 1-60 bill is that not including the stars in galaxy that would have died off? Maybe I should just read the paper.

  20. They say that if we look out into space,we are looking at the past.
    Does that include ourselves?
    Is there someone out there looking back at us?
    In what direction do we have to look to,too see the future(forward if that makes sense)?

  21. I wish I had intelligence enough to understand, much less work on, these questions. That's got to be a lot of fun piecing together the answers from numbers and ideas. Kudos to all you intellects out there that can do this, I'm envious.

  22. My take from this is that it is probable that there is at least one other planet with a technological civilization at or near our level of advancement, but they are likely too far away to be observed, both by us and them. If such a civilization exists and is hundreds or even many thousand years more advanced, and didn't blow themselves up, they could have technology that could know of our existence, but would still be unable to travel such distances even if they wanted to. Very interesting topic.

  23. The real question is intelligent life. Its almost a certainty that other life exists elsewhere in our galaxy but not necessarily intelligent life. Look at our own planet, we are vastly more intelligent than any other species by such a long way its unbelievable. However, we are far from being the oldest, take birds for example, descended from dinosaurs they are millions of years older than us but never developed intelligence as we perceive it. Whats to say that we are a one off, all other alien life simply never gained intelligence even after millions of years. We only gained our immense intellect through several flukes in evolution anyway, and gained just enough to be able to expand our minds through learning and education. A level at which is definitely not required to ensure survival.

  24. If we where made up of some sort of really rare element I'd say life else where would be rare also but we're not where made up of the exact same stuff the universe has in abundance and almost in the same percentages. It more a question of what civilisations get past war natural disaster etc and either destroy themselves or send there civilisation back to the dark ages. Plus the mind boggling distances between solar systems and if it's possible to go FTL.

  25. Its highly interesting how sure people are that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe. Anyone that is curious should at least read the basis portion of the Fermi Paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Basis

    In short, you can flip the ideas in this video around and say its near certain that at least 1 intelligent civilization would have tried to colonize the galaxy or at least sent out probes. Humans are already doing that and there are plenty of galaxies older than our own that are highly likely to also have intelligent life. So… we should see evidence of intelligent life everywhere! But we don't… which is the paradox part of what we expect and what we observe.

    Despite that, humans have a very easy time totally believing in the existence of greater beings. That's universal and those greater being could be Aliens, Gods, Ghosts, etc Why do we all believe in something like that? What's the purpose of "faith" and "soul" since it seems to apply to everyone?

    Also true to the Fermi Paradox and its origin (Fermi), we should only need to observe for a relatively short period of time to say with high certainty that we are alone. That time has come and gone and SETI (the search for life) understands that and is packing up and re-tooling. They are going to do "optical" SETI and reset the counter. But the point is in the radio spectrum we've already essentially ruled out the possibility. Crazy.

  26. A little after the video was posted…..but, why not look at the number of species Earth has produced, as a measure for any habitable planet's chance of spawning a technological civilization? I'm not sure if this has been suggested before, but I've seen several videos, on this subject and have yet to hear it mentioned.

  27. If these civilizations are hundreds, even thousands of light years away, its possible that species have developed, its just that the light evidence hasn't arrived to us in our field of vision yet. Perhaps the reason no one has attempted to contact us is because the light has not reached them yet. Also, by the time we can see evidence of their existence, their civilization may be completely different, if not wiped out by the Fermi Paradox (if you believe in that).

  28. The Rare Earth hypothesis says that while microbes may be ubiquitous in habitable zones, technology using multicellular life may be rare. "Rare" means that the expected number of planets in a galaxy harbouring such life is in the low single digits.
    The Rare Earth equation is superior to the Drake equation. We have little data bearing on a number of inputs the Rare Earth equation requires. But the Rare Earth hypothesis is the claim that in a galaxy the size of the Milky Way, the expected number of technology using civilisations could be as low as 0 or 1.

  29. 90% of stars are red dwarfs, and red dwarfs have an expected life of 1-10 trillion years. Red dwarfs have habitable zones. Given that the universe is only 14 billions years old, red dwarves are very early in their life cycles. It is also possible that complex life on Earth evolved unusually quickly, and that evolution proceeds more slowly on planets orbiting red dwarves. We could be alone in our corner of the universe, simply because from the point of view of a red dwarf, the universe is very young and not enough time has elapsed for complex life to evolve. It is possible that the Milky Way could team with life 100-500B years in the future.

  30. Support Life. Spread it everywhere it can take hold. It's your duty as an organism to insure it's survival beyond it's boundaries. We need to survive.

  31. Have conditions in the universe always been favorable for life? Do the fundamental forces change over time as the universe expands? If it did, it could be that the time we live in now is just right for life.

  32. All that is Bullshit when you don't take into account that other forms of Intelligent life don't rely on oxygen or perfect weather to survive, so you Douche bags are wrong, we simply evolved to live in Earth's Climate.

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  34. cave men leaders would make laws that were not there to make life good but hard.. money would be invented due to humans being stupid..and greedy…and yah would kill any alien life on that planet due to humans being greedy and tyrants… reason why.. earth and humans are put in a wide spread reach away from any smart alien planet… truth…

  35. so around a o.7 chance of life in this corner of the milky way.

    I know why the awnser to life is not 42 it is 1 becouse life happended becouse of the big bang everythig was just at the right place at the right time…

  36. Their are 2000 aliens races in alliance council goverment in 100.galaxies with 2000 alien races languages and cultures

  37. We are alone. The distances are astonishing. Let’s say a highly intelligent life was just 1000 light years away. Getting here would be next to impossible. Now if we have not detected them means they may be hundreds of thousands of light years away

  38. If there are other life forms out there, they would not want to meet us. Put in the factors of how many wars we had in ancient civilization to the present day. The United States has a dark history of slavery, bigotry, gun violence, etc. No wonder we are still a class zero civilization.

    Kardashev scale – Wikipedia

  39. You don't need to wait till you die for the answer. Much more accurate scientific answer had been recently published and you can read it here: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1509/1509.02832.pdf

  40. Intelligent life has a rather good chance of existing because our Universe is calm enough for life to have some chance of surviving this rather hostile to anything let alone delicate life. But I surmise the civilizations that will survive long term will be those that make AI and machines that are much tougher than biological creatures. Like Cylons. So we will likely end up chatting with the machine descendants of the biological creatures that are now long extinct.

  41. I have always been curious over this question.
    Assuming for a moment the most pessimistic view of the Drake equation, that humanity is the only intelligent life to have ever evolved and that in fact Earth is the only place where life has sprung up at all, Don't we have a responsibility to nature itself to spread life and intelligence through out the cosmos as far as we are able to ensure that life does not perish when the earth finally does?

  42. The Universe was only 10B years old when Earth could be classified as a planet. The same people who say the Universe is roughly 14B say the Universe will last at least 100,000,000,000,000years. Earth is an early civilization.

  43. All talk of the "chances of extraterrestrial life in the universe" assumes that we exist by chance. An assumption I am not ready to make.

  44. drake equation sounds like guesswork….do we actually know any of the factors…but its demonstrating of a concept i guess. you basically have to find other civilisations to answer it because a sample of one is completely unscientific

  45. The mistake we make when looking at far away galaxies is that in most cases we're looking back in time.and some galaxies we actually see that light from the earliest days of its creation. Therefore not enough time past to allow life form to exist but that doesn't mean there isn't life at the present moment. For an example if we seen alien life in our nearest galaxy andromeda being seeing that life form how they were 2 million years ago and vice versa if they looked at earth they would see primitive humans and not as we are now do to the speed of light that left our galaxy and just now reaching them 2 million years later.

  46. Just imagine if there really are 40 billion Earth-like planets in the galaxy, that would mean that every single human alive would have 5 entire planets all to themselves. Crazy.

  47. The only problem with finding extraterrestrial intelligent life is time. Let's assume there is civilization just like us 100ly away. Yeah, they should have heard us by now but a response would still be 100 years from reaching us at the moment they sent the reply. My 8 year old daughter might still be alive if we receive a reply, but I'm 34, so I don't think I'll get to see it.

  48. The Drake Eq. is basically meaningless. Since the numbers are unknown and could be any number, it doesn't really mean anything. Its math – gibberish.

  49. Alien life would me made out of elements that we haven't discovered yet that can allow them to survive in environments that would me impossible for humans

  50. Mars was destroyed by nuclear weapons. Radioisotopes have been noticed on their surface. The space station "moon" was brought over to "Earth" and set up with perfect synchrony and a layer of dust on its hull. Appollo 13 was escorted by a mile-long flying saucer around the backside of the moon. The aliens knew about the pocket nuke they had aboard…
    Aquatic cyborgs have left wreckage on the bottom of our ocean. When the nuclear power plants in Japan blew up, contaminating our oceans, fleets of flying saucers came up out of our oceans and left the solar system.

  51. Abiogenesis:

    OK 21 amino acids required… Urey miller delivered us 5-8 and advanced UM experiment gave us 23 L&D versions (making things worse)

    But OK lets assume 21 of all desired amino acids all in L form that life requires.

    a typical reaction speed for condensation is 10^-10 to 10^-7 seconds is normal

    The smalles Human proteine is 44 amino acids the bigest 27000.

    so lets start with a small functional protein formation by 100% natural random processes. Now there are 10^80 atoms in the entire universe and suppose that all are there to participate in the formation of a functional protein

    OK 10 amino acids in a functional protein starting from scratch = 21^10 options of amino acid combinations requiring 9 reaction steps to be formed:
    eacht step reducing the required time
    (21^10/2^9)*10^-10 = (1,66798810E+13
    combinations taking) 1,66798810E+05
    seconds = 1,93
    Only 1 of these amino acid combinations is the one we are looking for, for a functional proteine/enzyme………

    20 amino acids
    (21^20/2^19)*10^-10 = (2,78218429E+26 combinations taking) 2,78218429E+16 seconds = 0,8822 Billions of years
    Only 1 of these amino acid combinations is the one we are looking for, for a functional proteine/enzyme………

    30 amino acids
    (21^30/2^29)*10^-10 = (4,64065029E+39 combinations taking) 4,64065029E+29 seconds = 1,47154E+13 Billions of years = 1,01486E+12 secular estimated ages of the universe.
    again only 1 of these amino acid combinations is the one we are looking for, for a functional proteine/enzyme………

    44 amino acids, the smalles proteine/enzyme for a human body
    (21^44/2^43)*10^-10 = (1,505E+58 combinations taking) 1,50E+48 seconds = 4,77E+31 Billions years = 3,29E+30 secular estimated ages of the universe.
    And again Only 1 of these amino acid combinations is the one we are looking for, for a functional proteine/enzyme………

    100 amino acids:
    (21^100/2^99)*10^-10 = (1,67E+132
    combinations taking) 1,67E+122 seconds = 5,2859E+105
    Billions years = 3,6455E+104

    secular estimated ages of the universe.

    And again Only 1 of these amino acid combinations is the one we are looking for, for a functional proteine/enzyme………

    One can estimate where this goes to….. it is simply impossible by random chance alone to make a functional proteine/enzyme


    By random chance (thus lack of intelligence) the shear number of options is going to rule out statistically the formation of functional proteines. and I am not even talking about other life needed chemical components similar calculations can be made.

    This shows us that random processes could not have done it……

    we are here by deliberate design…..
    Indeed In the Beginning God created heaven and earth

  52. The craziest part about Tabby’s Star is that it’s 1500 LY away… that means if there is a Dyson swarm around it; than it’s been there for 1500 years

  53. If there was a star out there with 2 or more planets with intelligent life, wouldn't they build ships to get to each other, wouldn't that motivate them? If there was intelligent life on Mars I'm sure that would motivate us to build crafts to get there, and then better ones to find more life out in the cosmos. There's basically nothing on Mars so we're not in a hurry to get there, but if there was intelligent life would we already be there?

  54. Perform Nobel Prize winning work and win a t-shirt!
    The Drake equation doesn't seem to take into account all the little nuances that have got us here.
    Sure we're in the Goldilocks zone but we were also hit in early stages of planet formation by another
    planet that had lots of iron at just the right angle such that the Earth got tilted just right to have seasons and the resulting debris from said collision gave us a stabilizing moon and that iron gave us a metal core that provides a magnetic field to shield us from lethal rays from the Sun.

    How often does that happen?

  55. Im scarred of hpw small and lonely we are for example lets say you were in the biggest forest ever and there is no human and how long u go u can never find anything Yea Thats How Scarred I Am

  56. Not if we start to respect the intelligence of the life that we do find with us here — if that, then we will discover Earth isn't lonely and absolutely worth not shitting on.

  57. 1 in 60 BILLION chance… That's a pretty small chance for humans to be the only advanced civilization in the Milky Way; BUT we are talking about advanced civilizations here, advanced at least like us… If you only consider LIFE of big "animals" then the chance is way lower and if you only consider the chance that LIFE of any kind ONLY EXISTS IN EARTH the chance is way too close to 0. There HAVE to be life out there and the chances of intelligent life are way too high to believe that we are the only civilization in the galaxy, let alone the universe. It can't be. It just can't be.

  58. are the solutions to the challenges published anywhere? I am a lazy human that is curious, but not enough to go through the math;

  59. Given the number of stars and planets on this universe, of course, we are not alone. Its just that life won't reflect life on earth. And given the distance, its improbable for us to ever reach them.
    If Earth people are concern about the unknown (ie Thanos), we better start gathering the Avenger team.

  60. Just imagine if we had definitive proof that aliens existed. I truly believe it would unite the plant twords the common goal of making first contact and expanding our species through the galaxy. It would jumpstart so many technologies that no one is interested in! I just hate that I was born to early..

  61. What are the chances there has already been a few intelligent civilizations but they either destroyed themselves or were destroyed?

  62. Number of species ( animals ) on Earth 10 Million ( guess ).
    Developed intelligence 1 ( 1/ 10 million )
    Planets that might have been suitable for life 3 ( Venus / Earth / Mars ) / 2 now extinct ( 1 /3 )
    Times Humans almost went extinct 2 ( Guess )
    Terrestrial planets with a large moon 1/4.
    Known Exo Systems ( 3000 ) / Multiple planets 670 ( 1 / 4.4 )
    10 Billion by 4.4 = 2.3 B / by 4 = 575 Million by 2 = 287 Million by 3 = 96 Million by 10 Million = 10 ( Guess )

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