Human Extinction

Human Extinction

Hey, Vsauce. Michael here.
Do you want to be infected with Ebola without having to leave your own home or
deal with other people? Well, you might be in luck. You can
already download an Ebola virus genome. Right here on the Internet, right now.
And if you’re willing to wait a few years for 3D bioprinting
technology to progress a little bit, you can just acquire one
then, submit the genome to it and ta da! All you can print Ebola. Or anthrax or whatever it is you wish to
mass-produce at home to wipe out humanity. Are humans going to go extinct soon? Will human extinction be anthropogenic? That is the result of human action. Or will it be one of the good old-fashioned kinds of extinction Earth’s history knows pretty well? The Global Catastrophic Risks Survey,
issued by Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute placed our risk of extinction before the year 2100 at 19%. Now, you might be thinking “whatever, blah
blah blah armageddon”. “It’ll be okay, humans are too smart to go extinct.” Maybe you’re right. But it’s difficult to predict the distant future with a lot of certainty. What’s really cool though is that if you embrace that uncertainty,
a simple argument can show that human extinction soon is actually more probable. It’s called the Doomsday argument. Imagine a giant urn that contains either 10 balls numbered 1 to 10, or a million balls numbered 1 to a million. Now, you don’t know which is the case, but you are allowed to pull out one ball. You go ahead and do that and it is ball number 4. That’s pretty strong evidence in favour
of the 10 ball condition because drawing a four from a set of 1 through 10 is a one in 10 chance. But drawing four
from a million different numbers is a one in a million chance. By analogy you are also a numbered ball. You are a human who knows approximately what your birth number is. It’s probably somewhere around 100 billion. That’s how many other humans were most likely born before you were. Importantly, you didn’t get to decide which birth number you would have. So, just like the number for a ball, you are a random sample from the set of all humans who will ever live. The Doomsday argument points out that from 200 billion people there’s a
50 percent chance that a randomly chosen person, like you, would be born in the first one hundred billion. Whereas if there will be 10 trillion humans, there’s only a one percent chance that any given human, say you, would happen to be born within the first 100 billion. Either you are special and lucky to be born so improbably
early in the story of humanity or your birth number is to be expected because there will not be tens of trillions of humans. Human extinction will be sooner rather than later. But before you become too convinced that the end is nigh, keep
in mind that the Doomsday argument is not uncontroversial. One problem it might have is a reference class problem. Are you really a random sample from the set of all humans who will ever be born? Well, if you believe that in the
not so distant future humans will be quite different than they are today. For instance, there’ll be full of more 3D printed organs. The mere fact that right now
there aren’t very many humans with that trait could be evidence that
you aren’t a random sample from the set of all humans, just from the set of all humans like you, like does around you. Those born earlier in human history. Also the Doomsday argument
doesn’t consider the likelihoods of actual threats or human advantages over those threats in the future. It just assumes that we don’t know which way the balance will lie; that human extinction soon and human extinction later are equally likely.
But maybe you don’t believe that. Maybe you are convinced that human ingenuity will always stay one step ahead of any extinction event thrown at it. You could be right, but there’s reason to doubt that optimism. For example, the Fermi paradox. If it is likely that intelligent
life forms in our universe are capable of living for billions and billions of years, where are they? Why are the skies so silent? Perhaps it is because extinction level threat events are just too common for intelligent life anywhere to ever catch up. So, does this mean we should just give up? The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement think so. Founded in 1991, its supporters believe that humans are a negative influence on Earth and always will be. Thus we have a moral obligation to just stop reproducing right now and fade away. But what would a computer do? In a way, that’s kind what Tom 7 did. He created a
program that plays video games. The program came up with novel
techniques and strategies for playing games and even exploited glitches humans didn’t know about, or at least hadn’t told it about. He also had the
program play other games, like Tetris, which I think is relevant to our question. The computer struggled to
figure out what to do. You see, the computer wasn’t programmed
to consider future repercussions far enough ahead to notice that stacking Tetriminos in
certain ways made a big difference. On one run, when faced with imminent demise, the computer did something eerie. Rather than lose, and receive a ‘game over’, it just paused the game. For ever. Tom 7 describes the computer’s reasoning like this: “The only winning move is to not play.” And that’s right. If you pause a game for ever you will never lose that game. But you’ll also never win that game or achieve a high score. Now, we might not know what achieving a sentient life high score in this universe means or whether or not we’re capable of
achieving one. We might also sometimes panic when the future looks bleak. But if we keep playing and keep learning, chances are we could eventually figure it out and start playing really well. So, thanks for continuing to play, for being here. And as always, thanks for watching.

100 thoughts on “Human Extinction

  1. The picking a number from a jar theory does not take into account the possibility of reincarnation. or coming back as another human immediately after you die. Since this is how quantum mechanics works if we are indeed a quantum state in our heads. There can only be one quantum state of any kind in the universe at any time.

  2. Me: It's 2:39 am, you should go to bed mate.

    Also me: What bugs me the most is that live is the biggest cliffhanger ever, and YOU probably will not escape it.

    You're going to die before all of this is solved. I'd really want to know what happens in the future. I want to know what kind of technology will be there in a 1000 years.

    But just maybe.. I don't want to know, but i really wanna know if i want to know.

    Good night, I'll just close my eyes rn and think about this for 2 hours.

  3. Seriously what the fuck with your video spam. You had your chance 3 years ago and you got greedy and went making paywalled content, now you expect us to rewatch your entire old library of videos just because obviously your deal with YouTube backfired?

  4. That doomsday argument is completely flawed logic right? It means nothing. Every person in every point in history can make this argument and conclude its likely its the end of history. A person 10 000 years ago, and a person 10 000 years from now. Me existing is not a random selection. Its not like I was picked from the jar with my number… everyone alive is picked from the jar with their number as well, the "random selection" analogy does not apply.

  5. It Just say u arent that smal of a chance u life en..doesn't say humanity Will die till half of why is it called doomsday

  6. I’m not convinced by the doomsday argument. Perhaps I’m looking at this incorrectly, but the way I see it, there has to be someone to occupy every birth number. On a line, where every human life to have existed is plotted, every single life has to be filled. There’s always going to be someone to fill the life, and so there are 100 billion people to fill the first 100 billion dots. Yes, it’s unlikely that I would be picked to be the first human, but the role has to be filled with someone. It’s equally unlikely that any other position will be filled. Because of this, I consider this argument to be one for philosophy rather than any serious indicator of a mass extinction event.

  7. I still think that at some point in that AI's life, its gonna get tired of the charade of a paused life it's been living. Telling itself "at least I haven't lost yet" just won't cut it anymore. it knows it's lost . It knows it's simply avoiding the inevitable. And so in one final act of desperation, it ends the game, before opening task manager, and ending the program listed " me.exe"

  8. Is it just me or is the end really depressing after you learn that our galaxy will collide and will end in four billion years

  9. I'm from the future, Star Wars got alot wierder and theirs now a 7th season, your future is gonna get better and worse, I promise

  10. ¼ I thought that Vsouce is someone like HowToBasic or Maxmofeo… ¼ of my life is a lie and I lived without knowing who Vsauce really is.

  11. Some of the Great Extinctions have been caused by the shock waves of large asteroid impacts reverberating within the mantle and fracturing weak spots in the Earth’s crust and triggering prolonged vulcanism and creating stupendously massive flood basalt fields (LIPs) that released so much CO2 that the greenhouse effect was amplified to the point that extinctions followed.
    Note: There have been multiple Chicxulub-type impacts on Earth over the last billion years, as inferred from lunar impact craters, numerous multiple ‘large igneous provinces’ all around the world, and extensive geologic analysis.
    Search the Internet and YouTube for:
    ‘large igneous provinces LIPs extinctions’
    ‘samslair blogspot LIPs’

  12. Corona Virus is here and youtube recommends me this and some dude thought it would be a good Idea to put Ebola up on the internet for people to 3D print

    Damn we dumb

  13. VERSION NC_014373.1 DBLINK BioProject: PRJNA485481 KEYWORDS RefSeq. SOURCE Bundibugyo ebolavirus ORGANISM Bundibugyo ebolavirus Viruses; Riboviria; Negarnaviricota; Haploviricotina; Monjiviricetes; Mononegavirales; Filoviridae; Ebolavirus. REFERENCE 1 (bases 1 to 18940) AUTHORS Towner,J.S., Sealy,T.K., Khristova,M.L., Albarino,C.G., Conlan,S., Reeder,S.A., Quan,P.L., Lipkin,W.I., Downing,R., Tappero,J.W., Okware,S., Lutwama,J., Bakamutumaho,B., Kayiwa,J., Comer,J.A., Rollin,P.E., Ksiazek,T.G. and Nichol,S.T. TITLE Newly Discovered Ebola Virus Associated with Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreak in Uganda JOURNAL PLoS Pathog. 4 (11), E1000212 (2008) PUBMED 19023410 REFERENCE 2 (bases 1 to 18940) CONSRTM NCBI Genome Project TITLE Direct Submission JOURNAL Submitted (05-AUG-2010) National Center for Biotechnology Information, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA REFERENCE 3 (bases 1 to 18940) AUTHORS Towner,J.S., Sealy,T.K., Khristova,M.L., Albarino,C.G., Conlan,S., Reeder,S.A., Quan,P.L., Lipkin,W.I., Downing,R., Tappero,J.W., Okware,S., Lutwama,J., Bakamutumaho,B., Kayiwa,J.T., Comer,J.A., Rollin,P.E., Ksiazek,T.G. and Nichol,S.T. TITLE Direct Submission JOURNAL Submitted (17-SEP-2008) Special Pathogens Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA COMMENT REVIEWED REFSEQ: This record has been curated by NCBI staff. The reference sequence is identical to FJ217161. COMPLETENESS: full length. FEATURES Location/Qualifiers source 1..18940 /organism="Bundibugyo ebolavirus" /mol_type="viral cRNA" /isolate="Bundibugyo virus/H.sapiens-tc/UGA/2007/Butalya-811250" /isolation_source="blood" /host="Homo sapiens" /db_xref="taxon:565995" /country="Uganda" /collection_date="Nov-2007" 5'UTR 1..55 /note="leader region" /function="regulation or initiation of RNA replication" gene 56..3014 /gene="NP" /locus_tag="BDBVp1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487269" mRNA 56..3014 /gene="NP" /locus_tag="BDBVp1" /product="nucleoprotein" /db_xref="GeneID:9487269" regulatory 56..67 /regulatory_class="other" /gene="NP" /locus_tag="BDBVp1" /note="putative transcription start signal" CDS 458..2677 /gene="NP" /locus_tag="BDBVp1" /function="encapsidation of genomic RNA" /note="encapsidation of genomic RNA" /codon_start=1 /product="nucleoprotein" /protein_id="YP_003815432.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487269" /translation="MDPRPIRTWMMHNTSEVEADYHKILTAGLSVQQGIVRQRIIPVY QISNLEEVCQLIIQAFEAGVDFQDSADSFLLMLCLHHAYQGDYKQFLESNAVKYLEGH GFRFEMKKKEGVKRLEELLPAASSGKNIKRTLAAMPEEETTEANAGQFLSFASLFLPK LVVGEKACLEKVQRQIQVHAEQGLIQYPTSWQSVGHMMVIFRLMRTNFLIKFLLIHQG MHMVAGHDANDAVIANSVAQARFSGLLIVKTVLDHILQKTEHGVRLHPLARTAKVKNE VSSFKAALASLAQHGEYAPFARLLNLSGVNNLEHGLFPQLSAIALGVATAHGSTLAGV NVGEQYQQLREAATEAEKQLQKYAESRELDHLGLDDQEKKILKDFHQKKNEISFQQTT AMVTLRKERLAKLTEAITSTSILKTGRRYDDDNDIPFPGPINDNENSGQNDDDPTDSQ DTTIPDVIIDPNDGGYNNYSDYANDAASAPDDLVLFDLEDEDDADNPAQNTPEKNDRP ATTKLRNGQDQDGNQGETASPRVAPNQYRDKPMPQVQDRSENHDQTLQTQSRVLTPIS EEADPSDHNDGDNESIPPLESDDEGSTDTTAAETKPATAPPAPVYRSISVDDSVPSEN IPAQSNQTNNEDNVRNNAQSEQSIAEMYQHILKTQGPFDAILYYHMMKEEPIIFSTSD GKEYTYPDSLEDEYPPWLSEKEAMNEDNRFITMDGQQFYWPVMNHRNKFMAILQHHR" regulatory 3003..3014 /regulatory_class="polyA_signal_sequence" /gene="NP" /locus_tag="BDBVp1" /note="putative" gene 3020..4389 /gene="VP35" /locus_tag="BDBVp2" /db_xref="GeneID:9487263" mRNA 3020..4389 /gene="VP35" /locus_tag="BDBVp2" /product="VP35" /db_xref="GeneID:9487263" regulatory 3020..3031 /regulatory_class="other" /gene="VP35" /locus_tag="BDBVp2" /note="putative transcription start signal" CDS 3108..4133 /gene="VP35" /locus_tag="BDBVp2" /function="RNA-dependent RNA polymerase cofactor" /note="putative type-1 IFN antagonist" /codon_start=1 /product="polymerase complex protein" /protein_id="YP_003815433.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487263" /translation="MTSNRARVTYNPPPTTTGTRSCGPELSGWISEQLMTGKIPITDI FNEIETLPSISPSIHSKIKTPSVQTRSVQTQTDPNCNHDFAEVVKMLTSLTLVVQKQT LATESLEQRITDLEGSLKPVSEITKIVSALNRSCAEMVAKYDLLVMTTGRATATAAAT EAYWAEHGRPPPGPSLYEEDAIRTKIGKQGDMVPKEVQEAFRNLDSTALLTEENFGKP DISAKDLRNIMYDHLPGFGTAFHQLVQVICKLGKDNSSLDVIHAEFQASLAEGDSPQC ALIQITKRIPIFQDAAPPVIHIRSRGDIPKACQKSLRPVPPSPKIDRGWVCIFQLQDG KTLGLKI" gene 4372..5875 /gene="VP40" /locus_tag="BDBVp3" /db_xref="GeneID:9487264" mRNA 4372..5875 /gene="VP40" /locus_tag="BDBVp3" /product="VP40" /db_xref="GeneID:9487264" regulatory 4372..4383 /regulatory_class="other" /gene="VP40" /locus_tag="BDBVp3" /note="putative transcription start signal" regulatory 4379..4389 /regulatory_class="polyA_signal_sequence" /gene="VP35" /locus_tag="BDBVp2" /note="putative" CDS 4461..5441 /gene="VP40" /locus_tag="BDBVp3" /function="coalesce nucleocapsids and cell membranes in virion assembly (budding)" /codon_start=1 /product="matrix protein" /protein_id="YP_003815434.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487264" /translation="MRRAILPTAPPEYIEAVYPMRTVSTSINSTASGPNFPAPDVMMS DTPSNSLRPIADDNIDHPSHTPTSVSSAFILEAMVNVISGPKVLMKQIPIWLPLGVAD QKTYSFDSTTAAIMLASYTITHFGKTSNPLVRINRLGPGIPDHPLRLLRIGNQAFLQE FVLPPVQLPQYFTFDLTALKLITQPLPAATWTDDTPTGPTGILRPGISFHPKLRPILL PGKTGKRGSSSDLTSPDKIQAIMNFLQDLKLVPIDPAKNIMGIEVPELLVHRLTGKKI TTKNGQPIIPILLPKYIGMDPISQGDLTMVITQDCDTCHSPASLPPVSEK" regulatory 5865..5875 /regulatory_class="polyA_signal_sequence" /gene="VP40" /locus_tag="BDBVp3" /note="putative" gene 5882..8286 /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /db_xref="GeneID:9487265" mRNA 5882..8286 /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /product="sGP" /note="unedited mRNA" /db_xref="GeneID:9487265" regulatory 5882..5893 /regulatory_class="other" /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /note="putative transcription start signal" CDS join(6021..6905,6905..8050) /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /function="receptor binding and fusion" /exception="RNA editing" /note="GP1,2; structural glycoprotein; cleaved by furin into subunits GP1 and GP2 to yield a heterodimer linked by a disulfide bond" /codon_start=1 /product="spike glycoprotein" /protein_id="YP_003815435.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487265" /translation="MVTSGILQLPRERFRKTSFFVWVIILFHKVFPIPLGVVHNNTLQ VSDIDKLVCRDKLSSTSQLKSVGLNLEGNGVATDVPTATKRWGFRAGVPPKVVNYEAG EWAENCYNLDIKKADGSECLPEAPEGVRGFPRCRYVHKVSGTGPCPEGYAFHKEGAFF LYDRLASTIIYRSTTFSEGVVAFLILPETKKDFFQSPPLHEPANMTTDPSSYYHTVTL NYVADNFGTNMTNFLFQVDHLTYVQLEPRFTPQFLVQLNETIYTNGRRSNTTGTLIWK VNPTVDTGVGEWAFWENKKNFTKTLSSEELSVIFVPRAQDPGSNQKTKVTPTSFANNQ TSKNHEDLVPEDPASVVQVRDLQRENTVPTPPPDTVPTTLIPDTMEEQTTSHYEPPNI SRNHQERNNTAHPETLANNPPDNTTPSTPPQDGERTSSHTTPSPRPVPTSTIHPTTRE THIPTTMTTSHDTDSNRPNPIDISESTEPGPLTNTTRGAANLLTGSRRTRREITLRTQ AKCNPNLHYWTTQDEGAAIGLAWIPYFGPAAEGIYTEGIMHNQNGLICGLRQLANETT QALQLFLRATTELRTFSILNRKAIDFLLQRWGGTCHILGPDCCIEPHDWTKNITDKID QIIHDFIDKPLPDQTDNDNWWTGWRQWVPAGIGITGVIIAVIALLCICKFLL" CDS 6021..7142 /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /note="solulbe secreted glycoprotein; small non-structural secreted glycoprotein; sGP" /codon_start=1 /product="small secreted glycoprotein" /protein_id="YP_003815436.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487265" /translation="MVTSGILQLPRERFRKTSFFVWVIILFHKVFPIPLGVVHNNTLQ VSDIDKLVCRDKLSSTSQLKSVGLNLEGNGVATDVPTATKRWGFRAGVPPKVVNYEAG EWAENCYNLDIKKADGSECLPEAPEGVRGFPRCRYVHKVSGTGPCPEGYAFHKEGAFF LYDRLASTIIYRSTTFSEGVVAFLILPETKKDFFQSPPLHEPANMTTDPSSYYHTVTL NYVADNFGTNMTNFLFQVDHLTYVQLEPRFTPQFLVQLNETIYTNGRRSNTTGTLIWK VNPTVDTGVGEWAFWENKKTSQKPFQVKSCLSYLYQEPRIQAATRRRRSLPPASPTTK PPRTTKTWFQRIPLQWFKCETSRGKTQCRPHPQTQSPQL" CDS join(6021..6905,6907..6930) /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /exception="RNA editing" /note="ssGP; second non-structural secreted glycoprotein; secreted in a monomeric form; one A residue is deleted or two additional A residues are inserted at the editing site during transcription of the GP gene" /codon_start=1 /product="second secreted glycoprotein" /protein_id="YP_003815437.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487265" /translation="MVTSGILQLPRERFRKTSFFVWVIILFHKVFPIPLGVVHNNTLQ VSDIDKLVCRDKLSSTSQLKSVGLNLEGNGVATDVPTATKRWGFRAGVPPKVVNYEAG EWAENCYNLDIKKADGSECLPEAPEGVRGFPRCRYVHKVSGTGPCPEGYAFHKEGAFF LYDRLASTIIYRSTTFSEGVVAFLILPETKKDFFQSPPLHEPANMTTDPSSYYHTVTL NYVADNFGTNMTNFLFQVDHLTYVQLEPRFTPQFLVQLNETIYTNGRRSNTTGTLIWK VNPTVDTGVGEWAFWENKKLHKNPFK" misc_feature 6900..6906 /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /note="additional A residues are inserted or deleted during transcription by the viral polymerase; transcriptional editing site" misc_feature 7775..7852 /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /note="immunosuppressive motif in structural glycoprotein" misc_feature 7970..8035 /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /note="transmembrane anchor present in structural glycoprotein" gene 8269..9728 /gene="VP30" /locus_tag="BDBVp5" /db_xref="GeneID:9487266" mRNA 8269..9728 /gene="VP30" /locus_tag="BDBVp5" /product="VP30" /db_xref="GeneID:9487266" regulatory 8269..8280 /regulatory_class="other" /gene="VP30" /locus_tag="BDBVp5" /note="putative transcription start signal" regulatory 8276..8286 /regulatory_class="polyA_signal_sequence" /gene="GP" /locus_tag="BDBVp4" /note="putative" CDS 8496..9365 /gene="VP30" /locus_tag="BDBVp5" /note="polymerase complex protein" /codon_start=1 /product="minor nucleoprotein" /protein_id="YP_003815438.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487266" /translation="MDSFHERGRSRTIRQSARDGPSHQVRTRSSSRDSHRSEYHTPRS SSQVRVPTVFHRKRTDSLTVPPAPKDICPTLRKGFLCDSNFCKKDHQLESLTDRELLL LIARKTCGSLEQQLNITAPKDTRLANPIADDFQQKDGPKITLLTLLETAEYWSKQDIK GIDDSRLRALLTLCAVMTRKFSKSQLSLLCESHLRREGLGQDQSESVLEVYQRLHSDK GGNFEAALWQQWDRQSLIMFITAFLNIALQLPCESSSVVISGLRLLVPQSEDTETSTY TETRAWSEEGGPH" regulatory 9717..9728 /regulatory_class="polyA_signal_sequence" /gene="VP30" /locus_tag="BDBVp5" /note="putative" gene 9869..11504 /gene="VP24" /locus_tag="BDBVp6" /db_xref="GeneID:9487267" mRNA 9869..11504 /gene="VP24" /locus_tag="BDBVp6" /product="VP24" /db_xref="GeneID:9487267" regulatory 9869..9880 /regulatory_class="other" /gene="VP24" /locus_tag="BDBVp6" /note="putative transcription start signal" CDS 10335..11090 /gene="VP24" /locus_tag="BDBVp6" /codon_start=1 /product="membrane-associated protein" /protein_id="YP_003815439.1" /db_xref="GeneID:9487267" /translation="MAKATGRYNLVSPKKDLERGLVLSD

  14. the doomsday thing surely is irrelevant? we have just as much chance of living in the first 100000 years as the next 100000 or the next after that, the fact that we are among the second arbitrary time period doesnt mean were more likely to go extinct soon, someone had to exist now

  15. there will be no human extinction but this world will get much worse before it gets Everything that is going on in this world is God trying to get this world's attention to coming events like the Rapture, 7 year tribulation and 2nd coming of Christ. After the Rapture will be the 7 year tribulation the worse period in human history especially the last 3 1/2 years during this time people will die in the billions. Since prophetic events are on the way repent and turn to Jesus for forgiveness of sins and salvation. The only and easiest way to heaven is through Jesus and Jesus alone so accept Jesus as Lord and Savior before it is too late.

  16. Na humanity will survive sadly all the wrong ones. Now its no longer survival of the fittest but richest. The wealthy can afford making bunkers and survive anything which happens on the surface. Those same ones can also afford to make space companies and rockets and head to other planets. The only way we can be wiped out for sure is if Earth is obliterated before we reach another planet or if our solar system is wiped out when we do. We all need to die simultaneously due to one large catastrophe.

  17. I'm a just straight up tell you that the hole universe will eventually get destroyed and then be created again…with maybe even different laws of physics,so like it or not there is no way for anything to last forever

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